Climate Change, the dangers of AI, multiple wars, the rise of nationalism and racism, ... as if the future does not already look bleak enough, we are in an even bigger shit right now:
The worst case scenario is here. Trump won this election and this means that it is more then likely that the USA, the biggest economic and military power on earth will slide into an openly fascist dictatorship.
If you think this is too far fetched: Trump did not want to leave office in 2020. He tried to orchestrate a coup with fake electors. Now this coup failed, mainly thanks due to Mike Pence. Now we can expect that Trump will be more prepared next time. When he was elected in 2016 it seems he was a bit surprised and was not well prepared. Now they have already a plan for how to turn the US state apparatus into a fascist state. (E.g. see: BBC, Project 2025 in its original German or democracy now: Fascism Expert Jason Stanley on Project 2025)
The core of the plan is to change the people in the administration and replace them with loyalists. And not only the heads of the departments but also low-level administrative personal. This way they will create a state that is completely in line with Trumps fascist agenda. On top of this: the current supreme court (where Trump has already appointed 3 Judges and where there is a solid conservative majority now has ruled that Trump will have King-like powers. He is immune to do anything he wants as long as he does it as part of his Job as President. So basically there are almost no bounds for him when he wants to dismantle democracy and extend his power. As some of the Judges are again up for replacement soon this will even get worse.
Now it is still hard to predict on how bad the situation will really get but we should expect for the worst. There will be resistance but if Trump and his fascist friends are determined enough then they have a lot of tool to break that resistance. And we should assume that they are determined enoughsince they tried a coup before. The main unknown factor is on how determined our resistance will be.
Most of the global IT infrastructure is developed and often operated by US companies. As we have learned from Edward Snowden, even now the US intelligence agencies are using this to spy on all of us. Where some of those Tech-Giants same to be more in line with the totalitarian plans, some seemed to be reluctant. Now Trump has the power to coerce them and we should assume that he will use this power. Certainly he will not have to use much coercion with his buddies Peter Thiel (Palantir) and Elon Musk.
Now in Europe and other parts of the world, we already have a huge problem with the rise of right wing extremism and fascism. Now imagine that these tendency are supported by the USA with its more ore less total control over our IT infrastructure and the near infinite amount of money that the US can use to support fascist groups.
What most people do not have on their radar yet is the massive changes that AI will bring within the next few month and years. It is likely that AGI (AI at human level) will come within the next 5 years, but even 2026 or earlier is possible. Who ever is in control of AGI will have extreme power and since US companies are on the forefront of this development it is likely that the Trump regime will be able to use this. With AGI there will not only be a small change in the job market (where some jobs are replaced by others) but we are talking about up to 100% of jobs. All of this would have been a big challenge under otherwise optimal political conditions but with a fascist dictatorship in control of AI, the situation is much, much worse.
What brought us into this mess in the first place?
Clearly it is the neoliberal capitalism that is to blame. It created the conditions but it is not able to solve any of the problems. CO2 emissions are still increasing. The gap between rich and poor is still growing. etc. etc.
The centrist forces in europe (social democrats, some conservatives, the liberals and a even huge portion of greens) and in the US (most democrats) are to blame for supporting this neoliberal system. With the weakness of the left people turned to the extreme right for their protest.
What to do? Two conflicting strategies:
The first one is: To try to seek a broad anti-fascist coalition from the left to center and even including conservative forces, in order to at least prevent the worst. The rationale is, that with a global superpower in support of fascism we all need to work together here. A Résistance 2.0. The downside here are: This will include the people who are responsible for the mess we are in. People who knew that there was some risk that people like Trump could get elected and who still did not re-consider their course. For those who feel alienated by the system this would even more confirm to them that the fascist parties are the only alternative and that all others are "the system".
The second one: To denounce the centrist forces for their failure. To show how their neoliberal politics has created the conditions for the mess that we are in and to focus on the left. Now this is easier said then done, since the left is not divided into many fraction. But it is clear that it needs a populist left, in the sense that it is focused on the material conditions of working class. What we do not need are groups that pick up parts of the right wing rhetoric in order to try to gain popularity, as some on the left try. While it certainly is not the time to pick fights within the left it is still necessary to clearly denounce the whole ideology of the right, from the ground up. Anti-immigrant rhetoric as it has been picked up by Wagenknecht, Doskozil (Austrian Social Democrat), Harris, etc.. just makes the right wing stronger in the end.
Each of the above strategies by itself is a loosing strategy: Staying in the real of centrist politics certainly is, as we have just witnessed. The left alone also is too weak against such a powerful adversary. The most advanced surveillance machine ever built, or as Snowden called it: "Turnkey Tyranny".
So the main question is: How to reconcile this 2 opposing strategies:
The key for reconciling is, that all initiatives that are together with broad coalition of groups need to be really focused on single issues: E.g. creating save spaces for the most vulnerable, sanctuary cities, reducing dependence on US IT infrastructure and promoting encryption and open source, etc, etc.. while in parallel we really need to strengthen the radical left and create an alternative to the centrist status-quo.
The fact that the left is often splintered is not necessary bad in the face of the threat of the fascist surveillance state: Having a diverse spectrum of smaller group can make it more resilient: But it is important that the groups know how to work together against the common enemy. Maybe this could also help to rebuild the solidarity as the this common enemy is more visible then the abstract nature of the capitalist system. The system has a "had" again. We only need to make sure to not become tired of explaining that this hydra can and will re-grow as many heads as it needs.
But with all this bleak future I think it is important to still be able to be able to also paint an optimistic picture of how we can be successful if we try. What we need least is a new "Biedermeier".
Franz Schaefer (Mond), November 2024
